Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa are due early next year and elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh at the end. Of these, except Punjab, there is a BJP government in every state. BJP is putting full emphasis on the return of these states to power. BJP has once again set a target of winning more than 300 hundred seats in UP. Let us know what the BJP wants to achieve through these elections.
Will it affect the brand Narendra Modi?
The elections to the 18th Lok Sabha are to be held in 2024. BJP has said that the election of 2024 will be fought under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In such a situation, the assembly elections of 7 states to be held next year are very important for him. That is why she is contesting elections in every state on the face of Narendra Modi. In a way, the election results of these states will also decide the popularity of Modi. There are 132 Lok Sabha seats in these seven states. The maximum 80 seats are in Uttar Pradesh. That’s why BJP wants to win maximum number of seats in these states, so that Narendra Modi’s popularity remains and it will benefit him in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
BJP’s majority in the Rajya Sabha is also linked to these elections in 7 states. Elections to 74 seats out of 245 in the Rajya Sabha are to be held next year after these assembly elections. Out of these, 11 seats are in Uttar Pradesh, 5 in Punjab and 1 seat in Uttarakhand. Out of these 17 seats, 6 BJP members will retire next year. In such a situation, the results of the assembly elections to be held next year will decide whether the BJP will have a majority of 123 members in the Rajya Sabha before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. At present, the BJP has 93 members in the Rajya Sabha.
Through these assembly elections, BJP also wants to achieve the goal of presidential election. Presidential election is proposed in July 2022. Before this, assembly elections will be held in 5 states. There are a total of 690 seats in the Legislative Assemblies of these states. The value of their votes in the presidential election is 103756. This is equivalent to about 10 percent of the total votes. Their 80 percent or 83824 votes are in Uttar Pradesh alone. Right now the BJP has a majority of them. If BJP performs well in the elections of these states, then it will be easy for its candidate to win the presidential election.
BJP had made a historic performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It had won 303 seats on its own. On the other hand, if the seats of the National Democratic Alliance are also included in this, then this number increases to 353. Even after achieving such a big victory, it did not get the expected success in the assembly elections of two big states held in 2020 and 2021.
Impact of Bengal and Bihar results
The BJP and its ally JDU could not get the success they expected in the Bihar assembly elections. Despite all the resources, BJP could not become the single largest party in Bihar and its alliance partner JDU remained as the number three party. However, the BJP definitely managed to increase its seats. Tejashwi Yadav, 31, showed the stars to veteran BJP leaders in the day itself and made RJD the largest party in Bihar.
At the same time, in the elections of West Bengal held this year, BJP could not defeat Mamta Banerjee. Even after lakhs of BJP efforts, Mamta Banerjee managed to win more seats than last time. However, the BJP managed to increase its seats in Bengal and wipe out the Congress-Left parties. Similarly, in the assembly elections held in Delhi, the BJP had become upset.
The election results of these three states were seen as a waning effect of the Modi magic. In such a situation, the assembly elections of 7 states to be held next year will be an opportunity for BJP to increase its strength and morale. That’s why BJP has put everything at stake in these assembly elections.